You want eight new jobs next month. How many people need to call you to get there?
Guess low and you underfund the campaign, then blame the channel when the calendar stays empty. Guess high and you pay for leads your crew can’t get to. Either way, the money is gone.
The answer comes from working backward from the jobs you want, one step at a time. It takes three numbers you probably already know.
Quick answer
Divide the number of customers you want by the share of qualified leads you close. Then divide that by the share of leads that qualify. Example: 8 jobs ÷ 40% close rate = 20 qualified leads. 20 ÷ 50% who qualify = 40 leads. Use your own rates, not someone else’s.
Plain English: what counts as a lead
In this guide, a lead is a person who contacts you about work: a call, a form, a text or a direct message. A website visit is not a lead. A click is not a lead. A qualified lead is one you would actually quote: right service, right area, real person. Google Ads uses the same idea, separating qualified leads from converted leads that became sales.
The three numbers you need
You only need three numbers, and you can pull all three from last season’s records.
- Your goal. Jobs, new customers or signed contracts, in a set time. Not “more leads.” Ten leads and ten new customers are different goals.
- Your qualify rate. Out of every 10 leads, how many were worth quoting?
- Your close rate. Out of every 10 qualified leads you quoted, how many said yes?
Then work backward: goal ÷ close rate = qualified leads needed. Qualified leads ÷ qualify rate = total leads needed.
No records? Start a simple lead log today and mark each lead “qualified” or “not,” then “won,” “lost” or “still open.” After a season, you’ll have your own rates.
Meet Example Roofing: the mistake that would have halved the plan
Example Roofing is fictional: the company, its rates and every number. It’s here to show the method, not typical roofing results.
Example Roofing replaces roofs in Burlington County. It’s February, and the owner wants 8 roof replacements booked for April, when the weather opens up and homeowners start fixing winter damage.
From last year’s notes, she knows two things:
- About half her leads are worth quoting. The rest are out of her area, want gutter cleaning or are just shopping prices. Qualify rate: 50%.
- She signs about 4 in 10 homeowners she quotes. Close rate: 40%.
Her first math: 20 leads
Her first instinct: “I close 40%, so 8 ÷ 40% = 20 leads.” She almost budgets for 20.
But her 40% is the close rate on qualified leads, the ones she actually quoted. Half of all leads never get that far. Using her quote close rate on every phone call would have planned for half the leads she needs.
The right math: 40 leads
| Step | Math | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Goal | 8 roof jobs in April | |
| Qualified leads needed | 8 ÷ 40% | 20 |
| Total leads needed | 20 ÷ 50% | 40 |
| Share of all leads that become jobs | 50% × 40% | 20% |
Check it forward: 40 leads × 50% = 20 qualified. 20 × 40% = 8 jobs. The math holds.
The mismatch to avoid: never apply the close rate from people you quoted to every call and form that comes in. That one mistake cuts your lead target in half.
What if her rates are off?
Her rates are estimates. Here is how much the lead target moves if they’re a little worse or a little better.
| Scenario | Qualify rate | Close rate | Leads for 8 jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| A tougher spring | 40% | 25% | 80 |
| Her normal year | 50% | 40% | 40 |
| A great spring | 60% | 50% | 27 (26.67, rounded up) |
The math for each row: 8 ÷ (qualify rate × close rate). For the tough spring, 8 ÷ (0.40 × 0.25) = 8 ÷ 0.10 = 80. Always round up. You can’t get two-thirds of a lead.
Notice the spread: 27 to 80 leads for the same 8 jobs. That’s why your own records beat any industry average. A small change in either rate moves the target a lot.
Can your team handle 40 leads and 8 jobs?
Before you buy 40 leads, make sure you can work them. It’s an easy step to skip.
Continuing the fictional example:
| Work | How much | Question to answer |
|---|---|---|
| Answering and calling back leads | 40 leads, about 9 a week | Who answers, and how fast? |
| Roof inspections and quotes | 20 visits | Who does them, and how many fit in a week? |
| Roof replacements | 8 jobs in April | Can the crews finish 8, with rain days? |
| Materials and permits | 8 jobs’ worth | Can you order and schedule in time? |
If the crews can only finish six roofs in April, buying leads for eight just creates unhappy homeowners waiting into May. Shrink the goal, push some jobs to May or add help before you spend more on leads.
Match the timing to how long leads take to sign
A roof is a big decision. If homeowners usually take a few weeks between first call and signed contract, April jobs come from February and March leads.
So start the campaign early enough, and judge it by when those leads sign, not by the month the bill arrives. Mark open leads as “still open” rather than “lost” just because a month ended.
If you need jobs faster than a new campaign can deliver, look at what you already have first: quotes that went quiet, past customers and referrals.
Turn the lead count into a budget
Now you know how many leads you need. The next question is what you can afford to pay for each one.
Fictional example, continued. Say Example Roofing’s ads cost about $30 per lead:
- 40 leads × $30 = $1,200 in ad spend
- $1,200 ÷ 8 jobs = $150 of ad spend per job
That’s ad spend only. Management, setup and her time answering leads come on top. The $30 is a planning guess until real campaign data replaces it.
You know how many leads you need. Now find out what you can pay for each one: read how much you can afford to pay for a lead. Then check the total against what your business can afford for marketing and the costs besides ad spend.
When the lead target looks impossible, fix the weakest step
If the math says you need more leads than you can afford, don’t just buy more. Find the step that leaks.
| If this is low | What it usually points to | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Qualify rate | Ads or pages attracting the wrong people | Is your service area and service clear in the ad and on the page? |
| Close rate | A follow-up or pricing problem | How fast do you call back? Why do people you quote say no? |
| Both | The wrong channel or offer | Read which channel to start with |
Treat any improved rate as a guess until a season of real numbers proves it. Don’t budget on the rate you hope for.
Your reverse-funnel worksheet
| Line | Your number |
|---|---|
| A. Jobs or customers you want, and by when | |
| B. Your close rate on qualified leads | % |
| C. Your qualify rate on all leads | % |
| D. Qualified leads needed (A ÷ B) | |
| E. Total leads needed (D ÷ C), rounded up | |
| F. Leads per week (E ÷ weeks in your window) | |
| G. Can your team answer F leads a week and do A jobs? | Yes / No |
What to do this week
- Write your goal as a number of jobs or customers with a date.
- Pull last season’s leads and count how many you quoted and how many signed.
- Fill in the worksheet above.
- Run the capacity check with whoever answers the phone and whoever does the work.
- Take your lead count to the lead-cost guide and find your price limit.
Free tool: get your lead target in a minute
Tell the Customer Goal Calculator how many customers you want and how often your leads turn into customers. It gives you the number of leads to plan for. No account needed.
Questions owners ask about lead targets
What if I don’t know my close rate?
Start tracking now. Until you have a season of your own numbers, run the math with a low, middle and high guess, like the three scenarios above, and plan for the low one.
Can I use an industry conversion rate?
Only as a labeled guess. Other businesses count leads differently, sell different services and follow up differently. Your own rate beats any average.
What if the math gives me a fraction?
Round up. You can’t get part of a lead. Keep the unrounded number in your notes so you can check the math later.
Do repeat customers count as leads?
Track them separately. Past customers usually sign at a higher rate, so mixing them in makes your new-lead close rate look better than it is.
How many leads is too many?
Any number your team can’t answer quickly. A lead that waits days for a callback can go to someone else. Use the capacity check before you scale up.
Next step: bring your worksheet to a free First-Dollar Review
Bring your filled-in worksheet, last season’s lead log and your monthly budget. In a free First-Dollar Review (our free marketing consultation), ThinkDMG will check your lead target and tell you whether your budget can buy it. Request your First-Dollar Review.
Sources
- Google Ads Help: About qualified leads and converted leads. Defines qualified (interested) and converted (closed) lead stages.
About the numbers: Example Roofing and all of its rates, costs and counts are fictional. The arithmetic is real.
